Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Work out what a stock is actually worth. Start with a plain-English snapshot, or go deep and edit every assumption yourself, from revenue growth to the discount rate. Fair value updates as you type.
Stoxly's model estimates a fair value of $171.67, about 18% below today's price. To justify the current price, the market is implying higher growth than Apple's recent pace. Whether that's reasonable depends on your view of services and AI as new growth engines.
| Risk-free rate | 4.30% | 10y UST |
| Equity risk premium | 5.50% | Damodaran |
| Beta (5y) | 1.05 | FMP |
| → Cost of equity | 11.12% | CAPM |
| Cost of debt (a.t.) | 3.40% | FMP |
| D/V weight | 21% | FMP |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | |
| Terminal method | Gordon | |
| TV / Total EV | 62% heavy |
DCF doesn't work well for banks.
For most companies, cash flow is what's left after running the business. For banks, cash flow is the business — they earn money by holding deposits and lending them out, so "free cash flow" doesn't measure profitability the way it does for Apple or Microsoft.
Running a standard DCF on JPMorgan would produce a misleading number.
Stoxly would rather show you nothing than show you something wrong.
That said, banks are routinely valued on earnings. If you'd like a rough lens, the Quick Model can value JPM on EPS and an exit multiple — a cross-check, with P/B and ROE still the primary gauges.